CLIMATE-INDUCED SHIFTS IN SPECIES RANGES: PREDICTIVE MODELING AND CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS

Abstract

 The research involved a blended design that coordinated quantitative species distribution modelling (SDM) with MaxEnt data with the qualitative expert elicitation data conduction via Delphi analysis to predict the impacts that climate change is likely to have on the range of 50 land or marine species across the various biological zones.  Temporal estimates by RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 mean that over 68 per cent of species are likely to shift their geography centroid by at least 200km by 2080, with majority moving in cool latitude or altitude.  A reduction in the habitat suitability was found to be precipitous in those species which are acclimated to the cold climates and have low ranges particularly those exposed to RCP 8.5.  Its two most significant climate predictors included temperature seasonality and variability of precipitation.  Examining the percentage of models with a high degree of work (accuracy) of more than 0.85, we found that a mere figure of 88 percent is in the AUC category which makes them very correct models in predicting.  Spatial overlay study revealed that gaps in conservation are large and less than 40% of the estimated species ranges fall within the existing protected areas.  Professionals       emphasized the significance of such adaptive measures as dynamic corridor planning and targeted assisted migration.  Visual analysis such as centroid shift scatter plot, hybrid risk models and policy scenario radar charts provided us with effective information about the locations of biodiversity hotspots and priority areas of conservation in the future.  According to the report, the static conservation frameworks lack effectiveness when the climatical conditions vary. Rather it proposes that climate-smart integrative solutions are needed to employ predictive modelling and real time adaptive management in combination.  These findings are extremely critical in terms of planning ahead to safeguard global biodiversity since temperature changes are picking up pace.